ESPN INsider Premium Take 2 - Falcons v. Chiefs

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ESPN.com - NFL - Take 2: Falcons vs. ChiefsFriday, October 22, 2004





Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Falcons and Chiefs. Now they're back with a
second look.


Despite his inexperience, TE Dwayne Blakley has played adequately in
relief of the injured Eric Beverly (shoulder) who is generally Atlanta's
blocking tight end. Blakley's emergence has been critical, as his presence
has allowed TE Alge Crumpler to release downfield without leaving Atlanta
short-handed in protection. In addition, Blakley has done a good job of
creating lanes in the running game. At 6'4" and 257 pounds he's big enough
to match up with Kansas City DE's Vonnie Holliday and Eric Hicks.


Falcons' defensive coordinator Ed Donatell has done a good job of
adjusting his scheme to fit the strengths of his personnel. However,
Atlanta may have some trouble keeping Kansas City RB Priest Holmes in
check with LDT Rod Coleman (knee/shoulder) set to miss this game. Coleman
has been a big reason why the Falcons' run defense ranks among the
league's best. NT Ed Jasper will start in place of Coleman. While Jasper
has been adequate in relief, he isn't as explosive as Coleman. Without
Coleman's disruptive presence in the middle Donatell will be forced to use
more run blitzes. If Donatell blitzes at the wrong time, Chiefs TE Tony
Gonzalez has the speed to get downfield quickly and make the Falcons pay
for being over-aggressive.

Atlanta backup RDT Chad Lavalais has a broken right hand and he may not be
available either. The absence of Coleman and Lavalais puts the onus on
reserves Cleveland Pinkney and Antwan Lake to provide quality snaps.
However, they are inexperienced and they should struggle to make an impact
working against an efficient Chiefs' interior offensive line. As a result,
OC Casey Wiegmann as well as OGs Brian Waters and Will Shields should have
little trouble creating the cutback lanes that Holmes loves to exploit.


Falcons DC DeAngelo Hall, who fractured his left hip socket in late
August, is expected to make his regular-season debut. Hall was a starter
before the injury but he will line up at Nickel back after missing two
months of action. He gives the Falcons better match up capabilities and he
should help improve a pass defense that is currently allowing 222.8 yards
per game.


Containing Atlanta QB Michael Vick is a big concern for a Kansas City run
defense ranked 22nd in the league. The Chiefs will shadow Vick with OLB
Shawn Barber and SS Greg Wesley. However, the defensive line must stay in
its rush lanes and play with discipline if the Chiefs expect to prevent
Vick from getting outside the pocket. DTs John Browning and Ryan Sims will
need to avoid getting washed inside while Holliday and Hicks must do a
good job of mirroring Vick's depth in the pocket. Their ability to keep
Vick contained will go a long way in deciding this game. The Chiefs
struggled against the only other mobile quarterback they faced this season
(Denver's Jake Plummer) and they cannot afford a repeat performance.

Look for the Chiefs to get Holmes, who has just nine receptions, more
involved in the passing game. Atlanta's aggressive style of defense should
provide some opportunities for offensive coordinator Al Saunders to get
his biggest weapon out in space by running some screens. With the Falcons
figuring to run blitz more and LDE Patrick Kerney's tendency to fly
upfield, Holmes should be able to sneak out of the backfield undetected.
In addition, the Chiefs offensive line is an athletic group that can get
to the edge on screens and Holmes reads blocks extremely well.

The Chiefs got away from the running game last week, as Holmes carried the
ball five times in the first half. They can't make that same mistake
again. Although the Falcons run defense is ranked No.1 in the league, the
injuries to Coleman and Lavalais make it vulnerable. In addition, the
Chiefs run a lot of play action and QB Trent Green simply won't be as
effective if Kansas City doesn't get Holmes going early. As a result,
expect the Chiefs to come out running in an attempt to force SS Bryan
Scott to play closer to the line. WRs Eddie Kennison and Johnnie Morton
will have a much better chance to stretch the field if the running game
can create some single-coverage matchups for Green to exploit.

Special Teams

The Chiefs have to be worried about the state of their kicking game after
Lawrence Tynes missed an extra-point attempt and a field goal attempt in a
narrow loss to the Jaguars. Tynes is inexperienced and he may lack the
mental toughness to put last week's disappointing performance behind him.
At this point consistency has to be a concern.

Although Kansas City RS Dante Hall's numbers are down, the Falcons must
continue to cover kicks well, as few players are as dangerous in the open
field as Hall. Atlanta currently leads the league in punt return yards
allowed and is ranked third in kickoff return yards allowed. A big reason
for its success covering punts has been P Chris Mohr's ability to prevent
returns, as only 11 of his 32 attempts have been fielded. Mohr seems to
have improved his directional kicking skills and he will likely try to
keep the ball away from Hall.



Prediction: Chiefs 28, Falcons 24
 

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